For the spring migration season I am going to try to post weekly
"migration forecasts", with predictions for the following 6 days. These are
mainly focused on southern Ontario, as that is the region I am most
familiar with, but I will include comments on other areas of Ontario
*Please note that these are just my personal predictions & are by no means
a sure thing. So if you consult only this to plan your trips, don't blame
me if there aren't many birds that day : )
Ontario Migration Forecast - May 10th to May 16th
During the past week Ontario has had a few good migration days, but the
wind has been predominantly out of the east/northeast so there hasn’t been
major movement. A steady trickle of rarities and migrants have come in
though. That’s all about to drastically change! Conditions are looking
really good basically all week, and Ontario should receive a massive number
of new migrants and rarities. It could very well be the best week of spring
migration of 2022, get out there!
(Note. By “new arrivals” I mean low numbers of these birds, or the first
one or two, showing up in the province. Usually Southwest Ontario gets
birds about a week or more before other areas in the province too)
Cape May Warbler
Migrants arriving in large numbers:
All the thrushes!
Great Crested Flycatcher
Tons of warblers!
Rarities to look for this week:
Black-necked Stilt, Willet and American Avocet (especially in
Mississippi Kite in southwestern Ontario
Neotropic Cormorant (Lake Erie & Lake Ontario in particular)
Snowy Egret, Little Blue Heron, Glossy and White-faced Ibis
Worm-eating, Kirtland’s and Kentucky Warblers
Clear skies, long distance southwest winds aloft and warm temperatures for
southern Ontario. There should be a large arrive of new migrants across the
province, especially in southwestern Ontario… and also probably a few
rarities. Pelee/Rondeau/Long Point should be pretty good, as well as
southern Lake Huron.
South winds, although pretty light compared to the previous day… also more
clear skies and decently warm temperatures. It should be another good day
of migration, but not quite as good as the previous day.
Light southeast winds, more clear skies and warm temperatures. Likely some
birds will be moving for sure, but again I don’t think it will be the best
day of the week.
Strong south winds overnight and again, warm temperatures and clear skies.
There should be another big surge of birds all across the province, though
it’s hard to say where the best concentrations will occur. Southernwestern
Ontario should be pretty decent though.
As of right now the weekend is looking solid! Southwest/south winds overall
and more warm weather. There may be some rain around though, so it could
make southern Ontario (Lake Erie hotspots) interesting. Winds May shift
northwest after that, though it’s pretty far away to day for sure as
weather changes a lot this time of year.
Get ready for some serious migration, it’s coming!
I think Pelee should get it’s first Kirtland’s of the year, as well as some
other southern overshoots. All of southern Ontario should be pretty good
though, even away from migration hotspots. Without rain in the way to force
birds down, so honestly your local southern Ontario hotspots may be pretty
decent. That beings said, the classic Lake Erie migration hotspots should
be great all week!
The prolonged south winds should bring a healthy dose of rarities all
across southern Ontario, so get out there!
In other news, eastern Ontario should see it’s first push of Brant of 2022,
as well as a general uptick in migrant numbers.
Sorry if there’s typos… I’m staying at Pelee and am very tired : )
Websites that I use frequently
Windy (wind, temperature,
precipitation and more) - windy.com
Birdcast (good for large scale trends) - https://birdcast.info
Accueweather (an easier to read weather site that is normally accurate) -
If anyone is on Twitter, I post almost daily about weather birding related
things. My handle is @ONweatherbirder