Hi everyone, For the spring migration season I am going to try to post weekly "migration forecasts", with predictions for the following 6 days. These are mainly focused on southern Ontario, as that is the region I am most familiar with, but I will include comments on other areas of Ontario occasionally. *Please note that these are just my personal predictions & are by no means a sure thing. So if you consult only this to plan your trips, don't blame me if there aren't many birds that day : ) Ontario Migration Forecast - May 10th to May 16th Overview During the past week Ontario has had a few good migration days, but the wind has been predominantly out of the east/northeast so there hasn’t been major movement. A steady trickle of rarities and migrants have come in though. That’s all about to drastically change! Conditions are looking really good basically all week, and Ontario should receive a massive number of new migrants and rarities. It could very well be the best week of spring migration of 2022, get out there! - Likely New Arrivals This Week; * (Note. By “new arrivals” I mean low numbers of these birds, or the first one or two, showing up in the province. Usually Southwest Ontario gets birds about a week or more before other areas in the province too) - Short-billed Dowitcher - Ruddy Turnstone - Sanderling - Least Sandpiper - Semipalmated Sandpiper - Wilson’s Phalarope - Least Bittern - Willow Flycatcher - Eastern Wood-pewee - Philadelphia Vireo - Common Nighthawk - Black-billed Cuckoo - Yellow-billed Cuckoo - Bay-breasted Warbler - Blackpoll Warbler - Wilson’s Warbler - Canada Warbler - Cape May Warbler - Cerulean Warbler - Many more! - Migrants arriving in large numbers: - Solitary Sandpiper - Dunlin - Black-bellied Plover - American Golden-plover - Green Heron - Common Tern - Blue-headed Vireo - Red-eyes Vireo - Yellow-throated Vireo - Warbling Vireo - Chimney Swift - American Pipit - Red-headed Woodpecker - Lapland Longspur - Gray Catbird - All the thrushes! - Eastern Kingbird - Least Flycatcher - Great Crested Flycatcher - Orchard Oriole - Baltimore Oriole - Indigo Bunting - Scarlet Tanager - Rose-breast Grosbeak - Tons of warblers! - Grasshopper Sparrow - Clay-colored Sparrow - Many more! - Rarities to look for this week: - Black-necked Stilt, Willet and American Avocet (especially in southwestern Ontario) - Mississippi Kite in southwestern Ontario - Neotropic Cormorant (Lake Erie & Lake Ontario in particular) - Snowy Egret, Little Blue Heron, Glossy and White-faced Ibis - Ruff - Blue Grosbeak - Worm-eating, Kirtland’s and Kentucky Warblers Daily Forecasts - Tuesday, May 10th Clear skies, long distance southwest winds aloft and warm temperatures for southern Ontario. There should be a large arrive of new migrants across the province, especially in southwestern Ontario… and also probably a few rarities. Pelee/Rondeau/Long Point should be pretty good, as well as southern Lake Huron. - Thursday, May 11th South winds, although pretty light compared to the previous day… also more clear skies and decently warm temperatures. It should be another good day of migration, but not quite as good as the previous day. - Thursday, May 12th Light southeast winds, more clear skies and warm temperatures. Likely some birds will be moving for sure, but again I don’t think it will be the best day of the week. - Friday, May 13th Strong south winds overnight and again, warm temperatures and clear skies. There should be another big surge of birds all across the province, though it’s hard to say where the best concentrations will occur. Southernwestern Ontario should be pretty decent though. - Saturday May 14th and Sunday May 15th As of right now the weekend is looking solid! Southwest/south winds overall and more warm weather. There may be some rain around though, so it could make southern Ontario (Lake Erie hotspots) interesting. Winds May shift northwest after that, though it’s pretty far away to day for sure as weather changes a lot this time of year. Summary Get ready for some serious migration, it’s coming! I think Pelee should get it’s first Kirtland’s of the year, as well as some other southern overshoots. All of southern Ontario should be pretty good though, even away from migration hotspots. Without rain in the way to force birds down, so honestly your local southern Ontario hotspots may be pretty decent. That beings said, the classic Lake Erie migration hotspots should be great all week! The prolonged south winds should bring a healthy dose of rarities all across southern Ontario, so get out there! In other news, eastern Ontario should see it’s first push of Brant of 2022, as well as a general uptick in migrant numbers. Sorry if there’s typos… I’m staying at Pelee and am very tired : ) Websites that I use frequently Windy (wind, temperature, precipitation and more) - windy.com Birdcast (good for large scale trends) - https://birdcast.info Accueweather (an easier to read weather site that is normally accurate) - https://www.accuweather.com If anyone is on Twitter, I post almost daily about weather birding related things. My handle is @ONweatherbirder