Hi everyone, For the spring migration season I am going to try to post weekly "migration forecasts", with predictions for the following 6 days. These are mainly focused on southern Ontario, as that is the region I am most familiar with, but I will include comments on other areas of Ontario occasionally. *Please note that these are just my personal predictions & are by no means a sure thing. So if you consult only this to plan your trips, don't blame me if there aren't many birds that day : ) Ontario Migration Forecast - May 27th - June 1st Overview How is it almost June already? May always seems to go by so fast, and this year was no exception. After an action packed few months of migration, things are starting to wind down a bit here in southern Ontario. A big push of cuckoos, flycatchers and female Blackpoll and Bay-breasted Warblers signal last in the last few days signalled the beginning of the end of migration season. Things will still be moving into mid June yes (mainly shorebirds), but the peak of migration is in the rear view mirror. As such, I think it’s time that I end my forecasts for the season. There simply aren’t enough new birds arriving to make it worth it to write these weekly summaries. I have enjoyed trying out something new though, and I’m open to hear any thoughts you folks have about what you’d like to see in the future! I may try something similar for the fall season (lakewatch/Hawkwatch conditions? New fall migrants?)… we shall see - Likely New Arrivals This Week; * (Note. By “new arrivals” I mean low numbers of these birds, or the first one or two, showing up in the province. Usually Southwest Ontario gets birds about a week or more before other areas in the province too) - Arctic Tern - Whimbrel - Red Knot - Red-necked Phalarope - White-rumped Sandpiper - Olive-sided Flycatcher - Yellow-bellied Flycatcher - Connecticut Warbler - Dickcissel - Migrants arriving in large numbers: - Black-bellied Plover - Semipalmated Plover - Semipalmated Sandpiper - Ruddy Turnstone - Sanderling - Brant (eastern Ontario) - Common Tern - Yellow-billed Cuckoo - Black-billed Cuckoo - Blackpoll Warbler - Wilson’s Warbler - Bay-breasted Warbler - Rarities to look for this week: - Arctic Tern (eastern Ontario) - Laughing Gull and Franklin’s Gull (southern Ontario) - Neotropic Cormorant (Lake Erie & Lake Ontario in particular) - Snowy Egret, Little Blue Heron, Glossy and White-faced Ibis - Rare flycatchers (Scissor-tailed and Fork-tailed Flycatcher, kingbirds..) Daily Forecasts - Friday, May 27th South/southwest winds for most of southern Ontario, with temperatures around 20 degrees and rain for the majority of the day. I could see a few interesting bids showing up (shorebirds/gulls/herons dropping down by the rain), but overall I think it will be a fairly quiet migration day. - Saturday, May 28th Saturday is forecasted to be a colder day, with north winds and a chance of rain. Things are moving this time of year even if the conditions, so I suspect there will be some new arrivals ~ however it’s looking like it will be a slow day overall. - Saturday, May 29th Light south winds just reaching into southwestern Ontario overnight and getting stronger as the day goes on. There’s a chance of rain/a thunderstorm, but it’s pretty hard to say what will happen this time of year. Anyways it should be a pretty decent day for migration, for late May that is. Expect a decent push of late migrants, especially things like cuckoos and female warblers. Shorebirds should be moving in good numbers as well. Also a decent chance of a rarity or two showing up… - Monday, May 30th - June 1st From Monday until at least Wednesday there’s meant to be fairly strong, long distance winds out of the southwest. There may be some rain during some of the days, but overall it’s meant to be a fairly clear stretch. This nice migration weather will likely bring the last “big” push of migrants through the province, including shorebirds, warblers and various other songbirds (likely including some late species like Dickcissel and Sedge Wren). Also decent rarity potential! Summary Breeding bird season is near, but there’s still a few weeks of migration left! As I said before, there won’t be massive numbers, but birds are still passing through. A lot of shorebirds are peaking around this time, including some uncommon species like; Res Knot, Whimbrel, Red-necked Phalarope and White-rumped Sandpiper. Checking local shorebirds spots through until mid June is a good idea. Also the last week of May/first week of June is traditionally a good time for wacky rarities to show up in the province, so you never know what might show up in the next week! My money is on a weird southern flycatcher… Websites that I use frequently Windy (wind, temperature, precipitation and more) - windy.com Birdcast (good for large scale trends) - https://birdcast.info Accueweather (an easier to read weather site that is normally accurate) - https://www.accuweather.com If anyone is on Twitter, I post almost daily about weather birding related things. My handle is @ONweatherbirder